In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) received a total of 2.13 million new applications across all systems (covering various forms including immigration, change of status, work permits, advance parole, etc.), and the agency’s overall backlog exceeded 12 million cases. In the employment‑based immigration category, approximately 47,406 I‑140 petitions were approved this quarter. The growing contradiction between the massive volume of applications and limited adjudication resources continues to intensify, and USCIS is reviewing each application with increasingly cautious and stringent standards.

【Merit‑Based Immigration】Approval Rates Remain Low, the Era of Leniency Is Over

☑ EB‑1A: Approval Rate Edged Down Again

The approval rate for EB‑1A (Extraordinary Ability) has seen dramatic changes. Looking back at the full fiscal year 2025, the EB‑1A approval rate remained at about 66.9%; entering the first quarter of FY2026, that figure dropped sharply to 47.45%; and in the second quarter, it further declined to 41.7%.
In just two quarters of FY2026, the EB‑1A approval rate has fallen by more than 25 percentage points. This shift is not accidental – the massive influx of EB‑1A and NIW applications over the past few years has prompted USCIS to respond in a straightforward manner: raising the bar and tightening standards, which has significantly affected pending cases in the pipeline.

☑ NIW: Slight Recovery, but Still Below 50%

The decline in NIW (National Interest Waiver) approval rates has been even more striking. Between 2018 and 2022, NIW approval rates remained as high as about 90%; for the full year 2025, they had fallen to 55.2%; in the first quarter of FY2026, they further dropped to 42.5%; and although the second quarter saw a slight recovery to 48.1%, it remains far below historical highs.
Notably, NIW application volumes have exploded over the past few years – approximately 21,973 filings in FY2022, skyrocketing to 66,276 in FY2025, an increase of 200%. This surge in applications has directly led to a comprehensive tightening of adjudication standards.

A Deeper Crisis: Risk of Visa Retrogression

For NIW applicants, even more troubling than the approval rate is the risk of visa retrogression. The current pending backlog for NIW has reached 89,215 cases, the highest among all I‑140 categories. The U.S. Department of State has already warned in its June 2026 Visa Bulletin that demand from Chinese‑born EB‑2 applicants continues to surge; if usage continues to exceed expectations, a retrograde adjustment of the EB‑2 final action date is highly likely in the coming months, and in extreme cases, the category may be marked as “unavailable.”
This means that even if an NIW application is filed today, there are nearly 90,000 cases already in line ahead of it – retrogression is probably just a matter of time.

【New Law EB‑5 Visa Reservations】Hidden Backlogs Beneath the Surface of “No Retrogression”

☑ Application Demand Remains High, Chinese Applicants Return to the Top

In the second quarter of FY2026, USCIS received 1,772 EB‑5 new law applications (including 73 direct I‑526 and 1,699 regional center I‑526E), a slight increase from 1,765 in the first quarter. Chinese applicants filed 706 I‑526/E petitions this quarter, accounting for 40% of the global total, surpassing India to once again become the largest source country for EB‑5 applicants.
Notably, the pending backlog of I‑526E has exceeded 10,000, reaching 10,453. Moreover, the adjudication rate over the half‑year (1,946 cases closed) still cannot keep up with the filing rate (3,387 cases), resulting in a net increase of approximately 1,440 backlogged cases in six months.
Currently, the EB‑5 new law categories still show as “Current” on the Visa Bulletin. However, “no retrogression” is by no means equal to “no backlog.” The current backlog exists primarily at the USCIS adjudication stage – a large number of filed I‑526E petitions are still pending review and have not yet entered the visa issuance phase, so they have not yet triggered the “congestion warning” of the retrogression mechanism.
The U.S. Department of State warned as early as the beginning of the year that the accumulated I‑526E backlog will continue to consume reserved visa quotas over the next 2‑3 years. Once this batch of backlogged cases is centrally adjudicated and enters the visa issuance phase, retrogression will become inevitable. Industry experts predict that the approximately 2,000 annual reserved visas for the Rural category will inevitably be filled by applicants from China and India – it is only a matter of time.

☑ Approval Rate Declining, Adjudication Becoming Increasingly Strict

This quarter, the I‑526E approval rate was 79.69%, slightly down from 81.28% in the previous quarter, marking a new low since the implementation of the new law. The combination of extended processing times and declining approval rates sends a clear signal: USCIS is scrutinising each application with more rigorous standards.

The 9/30 Grandfather Clause – The Last Policy Protection Window.

The EB‑5 Regional Center program is currently authorised through September 30, 2026. Under the RIA’s grandfather clause, investors who file their I‑526E petitions on or before September 30, 2026 will have their cases adjudicated under the rules in effect at the time of filing, even if the EB‑5 legislation, regional center program authorization, or investment thresholds subsequently change. Petitions filed after this date will no longer enjoy this legal protection.

This means that September 30, 2026 is the last deadline for EB‑5 investors to lock in the current policy benefits. As this date approaches, a further surge in applications is expected. For applicants currently in the U.S. on nonimmigrant statuses such as F‑1 or H‑1B, this also represents the last golden window to take advantage of “concurrent filing” (filing I‑526E and I‑485 simultaneously).

Policy Tightening: Major Changes to RFE/NOID Rules

Of particular concern, USCIS officially issued a significant policy update on August 5, 2026. The new policy grants immigration officers full discretionary authority – if an application lacks initial evidence or has insufficient evidentiary support, the officer may issue a direct denial without first issuing a Request for Evidence (RFE) or Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID), and the applicant will have no secondary opportunity to supplement the materials.

This policy is already in effect and applies to all applications filed on or after August 5, 2026, as well as those currently pending. In this context, the completeness, accuracy, and compliance of application materials have become more critical than ever. The previously common strategy of “submit first and respond to an RFE later” now carries extremely high risk.

Summary and Outlook
The immigration data for the second quarter of FY2026 clearly outlines three major trends in U.S. employment‑based immigration:
First, the bar for merit‑based immigration has risen sharply. EB‑1A approval rates have fallen from 66.9% to 41.7%, and NIW remains around a 50% approval rate – the “era of leniency” has officially ended.
Second, the risk of hidden retrogression for EB‑5 continues to accumulate. With over 10,000 pending I‑526E cases, the surface “no retrogression” masks strong underlying currents, and retrogression is only a matter of time.
Third, the 9/30 grandfather clause is the final policy protection barrier. Missing this deadline not only risks exposure to potential legislative changes but also forfeits the legal safeguards of the current policy.
Combined with the new RFE/NOID policy effective August 5 – where incomplete materials may be directly denied with no further opportunity to supplement – the current immigration environment imposes unprecedented demands on the professionalism and completeness of application submissions. Whether for merit‑based or investment immigration, only by substantially enhancing the rigor and compliance of application materials can applicants seize opportunities amid increasingly strict adjudication standards.